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The Index of Job Openings

Significantly fewer job openings

Barometr Nastrojów Gospodarczych

Indicator value:

  • October 2012 127,5 pt.
  • September 2012 137,7 pt.

Index of Job Openings, showing the changes in the number of job openings published on the internet, in October fell in relation to the previous month, continuing the predicted negative trend. It also showed its lowest value for the past 18 months. The decrease noted was 10.2 points. The reason why there were fewer job openings published on the internet is the lower pace of new job creation which will lead to limited hiring and increased unemployment over the next few months.

In the current month only in the Małopolskie and Wielkopolskie provinces did the number of published job openings increase. In the other provinces decreases were noted. The highest job reductions were noted in the Mazowieckie, Dolnośląskie and Pomorskie provinces, which are the regions where the highest number of job openings were posted in the recent past. Among the leaders on the Polish labour market, where unemployment is lowest, and the number of internet job postings highest, the best perspectives are depicted in Wielkopolskie, Małopolskie and Sląskie provinces In these regions businesses continue to try to increase employment thanks to which the unemployment rate remains at a constant level or only increases slightly.

In September, in relation to the previous month, job postings fell by about 20% in the categories analysed. In October this data appeared even more alarming, because the decrease was noted as high as 50%. Quantitatively the highest decrease in job offers occurred in sales and for customer service specialists, and therefore in general in the trade sections of companies. This is linked to the changes appearing in consumer behaviour, which show a lower appetite for consumption and an increased appetite for savings which we most often see during times of low economic growth. A systematic decrease in demand in construction and in general among physical laborers has resulted from the falling number of new investments throughout the country. Employers do not suddenly limit hiring however, but they try to reduce the number of new jobs wherever possible. This is why the downward trend in the category of office administration has held steady over the past few months, which shows that managers look for savings in those job positions which are not essential for the company to function in times of economic low growth. After the growth in September in offers for economists, in October a significant decrease in demand for workers with this profile was noted.

Among the categories of job openings which were not characterised by a decrease in October, not many were found in which any growth was not simply a correction to the downward trend. However among these categories is that of educational services. Times of economic low growth are periods in which it is worth improving one’s qualifications which will become an asset when the economy recovers. From month to month an increasing number of firms actively are looking for franchisees. A growing role in European Union and Polish policy is being played by environmental protection. This is played out in the increasing demand for new workers in this field which most likely in the future will continue to successively increase.

Taking into consideration the level of qualifications of workers on the labour market, in October there was a clear increase in demand for those with higher or lower technical qualifications in the field of services. However in past months in this category we have observed a clear decrease, which up to this point was not recouped. For workers with higher humanistic qualifications or for those with higher education in the fields of service and trade there is a clear decrease in demand. The most ongoing downward trend, although not sudden, is seen in the demand for those with lower qualifications in production and trade. This is a sign of the successive limitation of consumption, both abroad and in Poland, and the accompanying limited production and demand for labour. Taking into consideration the number of published job openings the highest number are in production and sales which are dominated by positions requiring only lower qualifications.

Barometr Nastrojów Gospodarczych

Pessimistic data from the Index of Job Openings and the increased unemployment rate show the influence of the negative trends in economic growth on the job market in Poland. The unemployment rate since March has systematically increased and is already higher than it was one year ago by 0.6 of a percent. In 12 provinces higher unemployment was noted while in four it fell. The highest increases were noted in the Lubelskie, Lódzkie, Pomorskie and Sląskie which is in accordance with the falling Index of Job Openings for these regions. Both the size of the unemployment rate as well as the number of internet job openings show that the greatest difficulty in finding work will be found among those who live in the Warmińsko-mazurskie, Zachodniopomorskie and Kujawsko-pomorskie regions. Among a growing number of businesses throughout the country we can observe mass lay-offs. In addition in certain branches of the economy for example in tourism, seasonal work is now over. The coming months will lead to further seasonal limitations such as in the sector of construction. These tendencis indicate that in the coming year successive job reductions can be expected.

 

The Index of Job Openings is based on the number of job openings announced on the Internet in cooperation with the Institute of Economics at the University of Information Technology and Management in Rzeszow and the Bureau for Investment and Economic Cycles.

Data is gathered on the 20th of each month. Next the data is seasonally adjusted which ensures comparability between the seasons of the year, and excludes the changes driven by seasonal demand and therefore a share of jobs that are temporary. The Index is created in the form of a percentage index. It shows the changes in the demand for new workers. In relation to the changes in unemployment it shows in which phase the job market stands. Usually it has a leading property in relation to upcoming changes in hiring and unemployment. However another equally interesting interpretation is its unusual behaviour in relation to other job market indicators. It may show structural changes, or upcoming changes on the market. An example of such a change is the year 2002, when the Index rose together with higher unemployment indicating the growing imbalance between the qualifications of job seekers and the needs of employers which resulted in an unemployment rate which remained high.

Szybki kontakt

  • Adres:
    Instytut Gospodarki
    ul. mjr H. Sucharskiego 2, pokój 248,
    35-225 Rzeszów
  • Tel. +48 17 866 12 02
  • Fax: +48 17 866 12 22
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